'Investors need to be stock specific and should not rush to buy stocks at the current levels.'
The adverse impact on the margins of auto, consumer staples and consumer durables sectors will be counterbalanced by an earnings uptick in the metals, cement and oil & gas sectors.
Fear of a recession in the US due to rising unemployment has added to the concerns of India's IT services sector, which was seeing some growth returning after Q1FY25 results. The Nifty IT closed 3.26 per cent down, as major IT services companies' stock value fell. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's largest IT services firm, saw its stock price fall 4 per cent during intraday trading.
Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC), which is aiming to launch its initial public offering (IPO) next month, is set to alter the pecking order of top listed companies in the country. Depending upon where the government prices the IPO, the stock could end up becoming India's most valuable company on the first day and even get fast-tracked into global benchmark indices given its sheer size. According to market sources, LIC's IPO is targeting to mop up Rs 63,000 crore and Rs 75,000 crore.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), has been hitting successive all-time highs over the past three trading sessions. The rally in the scrip has helped it notch over a 21 per cent gain since the start of February, outperforming the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index. The gains for the leader of small passenger cars have been more recent, as the company still trails the Nifty Auto over one- and two-year periods.
The stock exchange BSE has called off the merger of its unit at the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City International Financial Services Centre (GIFT IFSC), India International Exchange (India INX), with NSE International Exchange (NSE IX), a similar unit floated by rival National Stock Exchange (NSE), according to sources familiar with the development. BSE and NSE had been in discussions for the merger for over a year, but it has yielded no results, they said.
Asian Paints was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, advancing over 3 per cent, followed by Titan, Bajaj Finserv, ONGC, Infosys and TCS.
Defence exports grew 33 per cent in the calendar year 2023 (CY23) to around Rs 21,083 crore while domestic defence orders serviced by listed companies were Rs 48,000 crore. The sector is poised for steady growth. Budgeted domestic capex is likely to hit Rs 3 trillion per annum, and exports could reach $6 billion by FY29.
Adani Group's market capitalisation on Wednesday regained $200 billion-mark (Rs 16.9 lakh crore) after its listed firms gained Rs 11,300 crore as investors reposed faith on the company denying any wrongdoing in supply of coal to Tamil Nadu power company. With Rs 11,300 crore gain on Wednesday, the apples-to-airport conglomerate gained Rs 56,250 crore in market capitalisation in the last two trading sessions, stock exchange data showed.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts - required to hold shares and other securities in electronics format - crossed the 150-million mark for the first time in March. In March, 3.12 million new demat accounts were added despite a spike in market volatility, taking the total count to 151.4 million. The milestone has come 19 months after the total number of demat accounts hit the 100-million mark, a sign that more domestic households are taking to direct equity investing.
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
Amid intense scrutiny from short-sellers and regulators, Adani group stocks have seen a significant shift in their shareholder base: Relatively opaque foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have given way to more recognisable investors and broad-based funds. The list of large public shareholders - those directly holding at least 1 per cent - is now dominated by entities, such as the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), US-based GQG Partners, Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company, and Qatar Investment Authority's INQ Holding.
Titan Company, Axis Bank, NTPC, Tata Motors, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were the other laggards. Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Infosys and Larsen & Toubro were among the gainers.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Thursday, dragged by continuous selling in HDFC Bank and profit-taking in consumer durables and utility shares. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell by 313.90 points or 0.44 per cent to settle at 71,186.86. During the day, it tanked 835.26 points or 1.16 per cent to 70,665.50.
The Indian cement industry is hopeful of greener pastures after a long period of stress led by pricing pressures and other factors. The second half of FY25 is expected to bring respite due to price hikes, cost benefits and higher volumes, said analysts. The optimistic momentum also makes cement stocks attractive, analysts added, advising to buy dips following a period of bearish sentiment in these stocks.
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
Among Sensex shares, Tech Mahindra fell by over 6 per cent after the company reported a 60 per cent decline in net profit to Rs 510.4 crore in the December quarter. Bharti Airtel, ITC, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Nestle, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services and Maruti were among the other major laggards. NTPC, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the gainers.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
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Capital markets are becoming more prominent in India's growth story, with an expanding share in capital formation and investment landscape on the back of technology, innovation and digitisation, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Further, Indian markets are resilient to global geo-political and economic shocks, it added. "Despite heightened geo-political risks, rising interest rates and volatile commodity prices, Indian capital markets have been one of the best performing among emerging markets in FY24," the Economic Survey said.
Changes have been made in several indices including Nifty 500, Nifty 200, Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250 and host of sectoral indices including FMCG, IT, media, pharma, commodities and services sector.
Zomato could get added to the MSCI and FTSE indices by the end of this year, while an entry to the Nifty or the Sensex would be challenging before the second half of 2022, said Brian Freitas, an analyst at independent research provider Smartkarma, in note. "With nearly the entire pre-IPO shares locked up for one year, the free float will be very low and the stock will need to move higher to around Rs 328 per share (4.3 times over possible IPO price of Rs 76) to be included in the Nifty index (with no change in the market cap of the smallest index constituent). "We can be reasonably certain that Zomato will not be included in the Nifty index till the September 2022 rebalance at the earliest," he said.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
For the third month running, investors opened over four million new demat accounts in February, showing growing household confidence in stock markets and their increased risk appetite. Over 13.12 million new demat accounts have been opened in the last three months, taking the total count close to the 150-million mark. Demat accounts are needed for trading and holding shares electronically.
Analyst are cautious about the performance of IT services sector from January to March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and the first half (H1) of FY25. While the Bloomberg consensus on revenue implies the market is expecting 2-3 per cent growth on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis for the IT majors through FY25, the H1FY25 is likely to see even flatter returns, and Q4FY24 is likely to be poor. There is likely to be some recovery in the second half (H2FY25) but even so, there's a chance that the market will be overall disappointed.
Global private equity (PE) firms are successfully offloading large equity stakes in domestic companies in the open market, taking advantage of buoyant conditions. Strong domestic liquidity support and an upward trending market have underpinned over a dozen PE exits worth $2.5 billion, data compiled by Business Standard shows. The figures exclude PE exits during maiden share sales and shares sold by strategic investors, such as SoftBank and Ant Group in new-age companies.
Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Maruti, Wipro, Larsen & Toubro, Infosys, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major gainers.
The representation of women on the boards of the top 100 companies in India has improved in the last five years, said a survey released on Monday. The findings were based on the annual reports and website disclosures of Nifty 100 companies and revealed in the 4th Annual Corporate Governance Survey by Excellence Enablers Private Limited. In the year ending March 31, 2023, the percentage of women among the total directors in the top 100 companies was the highest since 2018-2019 - rising to 19 per cent from 15 per cent earlier.
Investors should look at actively managed funds, says Devangshu Datta.
Among index funds, the most popular products are funds tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex, says Dwaipayan Bose, and explains the finer points of selecting the right index mutual fund.
The dealers operating in the space have jumped nearly three times over the past two years.
The upper market capitalisation (mcap) threshold for midcap and smallcap stocks in the mutual fund (MF) industry's revised list of stocks, to be announced this month, is set to see the second-highest yearly rise in the past five years. The list was first announced in 2018, and it has been revised every six months since then. According to estimates released by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, the upper threshold for the midcap and smallcap universes could come in at Rs 66,700 crore and Rs 21,900 crore in the next list.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
Equity markets may witness a gradual up-move this week with some volatility as both election and earnings season are nearing their end, analysts said, adding that global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would hold significance in dictating investors' sentiment. Benchmark indices, which had a record-breaking rally last week, would also track global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend. The monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday may also fuel volatility in markets.
Shares of Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) tumbled 12 per cent in the mid-session trade on Wednesday amid reports of capital market regulator Sebi has unearthed a financial discrepancy exceeding USD 241 million (nearly Rs 2,000 crore) in the accounts of the company. The stock of the company nosedived 11.58 per cent to Rs 170.65 apiece on the BSE. ZEEL shares plunged 11.39 per cent to Rs 170.70 per piece on the NSE.
Notwithstanding the recent sharp decline in the stocks of public sector companies, analysts at Jefferies remain bullish on this segment. State Bank of India, Coal India, and NTPC are their top picks in this space, they said in a recent note. The public sector undertaking (PSU) or state-owned enterprise (SOE) index, with a 70-percentage-point outperformance versus the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 over the past 12 months, comes after a decade of underperformance before 2020.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
Equity investors became richer by Rs 2.4 lakh crore as key benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty scaled new peaks in morning trade on Tuesday, amid persistent foreign fund inflows. Analysts said foreign institutional investors have reversed their selling strategy and have been consistent buyers during the last seven days. This momentum is a reflection of institutional confidence in the Indian market, they said.
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